📈 Profit Trades #3 – RXRX (NASDAQ: RXRX)

Company Overview

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: RXRX) is a TechBio company that applies AI, automation, and massive biological datasets to accelerate drug discovery across CNS, oncology, immunology, and infectious diseases. In 2025, the company:

• Released the Boltz-2 AI model in collaboration with MIT, improving discovery speed.
• Secured rights to the REV102 program, expanding its rare-disease pipeline.
• Scheduled a Q2 2025 business & earnings update, with investors watching revenue trajectory and partnerships.

Positioning: evolving from a traditional biotech to a data-driven drug discovery platform.

Chart Analysis — Long Trading Range Context

Over the past year RXRX has oscillated inside a broad range (~$3.80–$12). The lower band carries heavy supply from prior breakdowns, so rallies often stall unless supported by fresh catalysts and expanding volume. This context favors a bottom-to-mid band swing approach until a decisive range break occurs.

Chart Analysis — Cup Pattern, Gap Supply & Target Hit

After a prolonged decline, RXRX formed a cup-like base. A wide-range green candle with rising volume led to a breakout, tagging the $6.94 target (3/24 high). Post-target, however, demand did not expand above the gap supply zone, and price slipped back into consolidation—typical behavior for a news-sensitive name.

Trading Journal — Entry, Exit & Rationale

• Entry: $5.46
• Stop: $5.01 (entry-candle low)
• Target: $6.94 (hit; 2025-07-21 auto close)

Entry followed confirmation at the box bottom with volume expansion; RSI/MACD composite aligned with a buy signal. The risk plan anchored the stop to the setup candle, and the target referenced a clear prior level ($6.94). With no new catalysts after target hit, the position closed per plan.

Reflection & Outlook

The trade illustrates the value of pattern + volume + level-based risk. RXRX remains an event-driven stock: durable trends typically require follow-through news and sustained participation.

• Near term: Monitor $5.00 and the lower band; a deeper flush could probe the $3.80 floor.
• On rebounds: $6.94 then $8.50 are key checkpoints where supply often reappears.
• Longer term: If AI assets (e.g., Boltz-2) convert into revenue-bearing programs and partnerships, a range breakout toward $12 becomes plausible.

Bottom line: treat RXRX as a range-aware swing with a watch on catalysts. Let volume confirm any breakout beyond supply.